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General threat level in Belgium
In Belgium, the assessment of the general terrorist and extremist threat is carried out by the Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA). It is updated in principle every month, and serves as a barometer to evaluate the evolution of the threat.
Description
The terrorist/extremist threat against Belgium, its population and its interests is assessed as serious.
Probability of an attack
The occurrence of an attack is considered possible and plausible.
Context
This level is often associated with tangible threat reports, with trigger events (for example, the conflict between Israel and Hamas), and/or with a more explicit and credible expression of violent intentions by terrorist organizations or actors.
The objective is to provide an up-to-date overview of the threat and to determine the probability and severity of a potential attack, based on the information and intelligence received, after a thorough examination of their credibility. The assessment covers the terrorist and the extremist threat, in accordance with CUTA’s mandate.
To determine the level of the general threat in Belgium, CUTA applies a rigorous methodology based on two main criteria: the probability and the potential severity of an attack. In its analysis, CUTA takes into account various parameters, the most significant ones being:
Threat reports
The number and level of reports received.
Threat cases
Ongoing cases handled by judicial authorities, the police, and intelligence services.
Trigger events
Such as major international conflicts or acts of blasphemy.
Intent of terrorist organizations
Observed through their propaganda and other communication. For example, assessing to what extent Belgium is designated as a preferred target.
Incidents in Belgium and abroad
Attacks and incidents in Belgium or abroad that may influence the Belgian context.
This approach enables CUTA to provide the most accurate possible threat assessment, and offer policymakers and partner services a clear understanding of the current terrorist and extremist threat context.